The Big Apple: Will there be too FEW condos? More!

WITH NEW CONSTRUCTION AT ITS NADIR, LOOK FOR HIGHER CONDO PRICES BY 2012

As the market plods along in a slow but steady recovery, brokers and developers are saying the city will soon face a shortage of new development projects.

Last year, through November, the city issued permits for only 10 new residential buildings, for a total of 505 new units. That’s 95 percent fewer apartments, either condo or rental, than for the same period in 2008, when permits were filed for 9,448 units in 147 buildings, according to census data. (The number of units had dropped to 1,203 in 31 buildings in 2009.)

Starting in 2012, after most or all the new projects that were stalled or delayed have finally sold out, the supply of new apartments will take a decided dip, and prices for all apartments could start to rise significantly again.

“Once we work through the existing inventory and there’s nothing new coming on line,” President Kelly Mack of the Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group told the New York Times, “there’s going to be a major shift in the market. Prices may start going up significantly in 2012 in anticipation of the shift in inventory.”

THAT OTHER INEVITABLE FACT OF LIFE IS GOING UP

Co-op and condo owners Continue reading

The Big Apple: Luxury sales skew market. More!

LUXURY SALES COLOR THE HOUSING MARKET, WHICH IS MOVING ‘SIDEWAYS’ AND PROMPTING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC FORECASTS

Sales activity in the second half–as measured by number of sales, median sale prices, average number of days on market and the number of Manhattan apartments on the market–settled comfortably into historic 10-year ranges, according to two separate market reports in Crain’s New York.

(via Prudential Douglas Elliman)

Despite a busy market for trophy properties, the pace of sales and median prices of Manhattan apartments slipped during the fourth quarter, the Wall Street Journal observed.

The number of sales fell by Continue reading

Weekly roundup of news you don’t want to miss

Here’s your chance to catch up with news included to inform, enlighten and perhaps even entertain you. To read about The Big Apple, check out another of today’s three posts.

HE SCORES BIG AND HIGH IN HARLEM

SELF-STYLED OLD AND CRANKY FASHIONISTA LISTS Continue reading

The Big Apple: Q3 reports suggest stabilization

PRICES ARE UP AND SALES ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN THIRD QUARTER

After two years of unpredictable sales trends, the Manhattan real estate market seems to have settled into a more typical and seasonal pattern, with prices rising slightly and sales volume dipping in the recent summer months, according to third-quarter market reports, says the New York Times.

Prices increased for the fifth straight quarter, with the average sales price hovering around $1.43 million and the median price around $910,000, according to data provided by the city’s four largest brokerage firms. But prices are still well below the market’s height a couple of years ago, when the average was higher than $1.7 million and the median was close to $1 million.

Inventory has declined, reports the Real Deal, and the Wall Street Journal says Manhattan is a star in the apartment market.

But my post (below) on Wednesday questions whether September has evolved into a healthier market.

FIVE NEW YORK NEIGHBORHOODS ARE AMONG NATION’S MOST COSTLY

The West Village’s 10014 Continue reading

Don’t laugh, but REBNY’s ‘survey’ is a joke

The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) released its latest survey results today, unwittingly providing insight into why they don’t merit your attention.

As a member, I’m sure I got an e-mail asking for my participation.  I may even have responded, though I don’t recall.  But any survey that depends on self-selected responses is not worth the bytes it consumes.

What was the methodology?  I have no idea.  What I do know from today’s press release is only this:

The Broker Survey is conducted quarterly and was sent to REBNY Residential Division members in July after the close of the second quarter.

The release begins with the insupportable conclusion Continue reading

Condo prices in May suggest ‘moribund’ market

Data analysis firm Radar Logic says in its newest RPX report that Manhattan condo prices were 6.7 percent higher in May than one year earlier but 16 percent lower than the peak in late 2008.

Referring to a gradual upward trend, the company said month-to-month growth in condo prices in was “de minimis,” suggesting “a relatively moribund Manhattan condo market at a time of year when prices typically rise.”

In May 2009, Manhattan condominium sales dropped to their lowest rate since the beginning of Radar Logic’s 10-year data history. Since then, the RPX Manhattan Condominium Transaction Count has doubled while remaining below its 10-year average.  The firm declared: Continue reading

Rent declines in 2009 were slow but steady

Manhattan’s rental market opened 2009 with a continuation of the downward trends that began in the fall of 2008, reports the Real Estate Group of New York, which noted that landlords quickly saw that incentives were needed to decrease inventories.

“Manhattan rapidly became a no fee market.”

The chart below (which, I’m sorry to say, is hard to read), summarizes the report: Continue reading