Deutsche Bank keeps proving it’s no pollyanna

Deutsche Bank predicts a decline of 40.6% in New York area housing prices from the first quarter of 2009.  So goes a new post by the Wall Street Journal.

A slight improvement over the 47.4% decline that the bank’s analysts had forecast in March, the latest prediction partly reflects a decrease in prices since then.  Prices would have to drop another 32% from the first quarter of 2009 to return the New York market to levels of affordability not seen since 1998 by the bank’s estimate.

Since the region includes outer boroughs of Manhattan as well as the suburbs stretching in every direction, including New Jersey, I take the forecast with a grain of salt.  I find it incredible that prices in Manhattan could decelerate at anything like the pace we saw in the months following the collapse of Lehman Bros.

I’ll have details in my forthcoming newsletter.

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Malcolm Carter
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
Senior Vice President
Charles Rutenberg Realty
127 E. 56th Street
New York, NY 10022

M: 347-886-0248
F: 347-438-3201

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