Continued weakness in the job market and a lingering overhang of excess supply and shadow inventory remain significant obstacles to a rebound for the housing market, the Mortgage Bankers Association says in the mortgage finance forecast it released this week. Said the advocacy group:
2010 will be a tough year for the industry, as the unemployment rate peaks, but remains high, leading to continued high levels of delinquencies and foreclosures. Home sales should begin to pick up modestly, and home prices should begin to stabilize, leading to some growth in purchase originations. However, rising rates should significantly curtail refi originations.
. . . [I]t is unclear how much rates will increase when the Fed steps out of the market completely.
Note the two uses of “should” and the one use of “unclear.”
You can draw your own conclusions, and you’ll find more of the report in the free e-newsletter I write every two weeks as well as in a PDF of the forecast.
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