If you predict that the time will be 6 p.m., you’ll be right twice a day.
If you forecast rain, you’ll be correct – eventually.

There had to be a time when Prof. Shiller was called "Bobby."
Robert Shiller was right eventually, too, when he projected a bursting of the housing bubble. He had to be right – eventually. Yet it was years before his doomsaying came true.
At the same time, the Case-Shiller Indices, which the Yale economics professor and his pal, Karl E. Case issue monthly, also can be right – but only if you put them in the following perspective: Continue reading